Missed by that much

In 2008, some scientists declared it a 50/50 bet that the Arctic would be ice free that Summer. Turned out they were wrong by about 5 million square kilometres.

Once again in 2009, predictions of an ice free Summer at the north Pole appear to have been exaggerated, with even the alarmists conceding it is unlikely to reach a record low. In fact, if the current trend line continues, it would appear likely there may be more ice (at least, in area) covering the Arctic than in 2008.

In other words - if the amount of ice likely to be at the North Pole at the highest point of Summer was a country, it would rank seventh in the world, somewhere between the size of India and Australia. It would in fact be enough to cover all of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia combined...