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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Goalposts moved

Since 2005, climate alarmists have been warning that there will be 50 million climate refugees by 2010. However, censuses of the Pacific nations predicted to be underwater by now (such as Tuvalu) show that their populations are actually increasing.

Now that 2010 is fast approaching, it will soon become apparent that the predicted 50 million climate refugees figure is simply not going to happen. So what to do?

a) Reappraise the figures and go back and have a look at the science, or

b) Make increasingly ridiculous claims and extend the deadline?

It's a no-brainer - the latest media reports suggests that there will be up to 75 million climate refugees in the Asia Pacific over the next 40 years. Since the entire population of the Pacific Islands is about 1.6 million, we guess this means about 73.4 million can be expected from unspecified places in Asia.

UPDATE: The UK's Daily Telegraph reports that:
More than 75 million people living on Pacific islands will have to relocate by 2050 because of the effects of climate change, Oxfam has warned.
However, we repeat, the entire population of the Pacific Islands is 1.6 million, maybe 6 million if you include Papua New Guinea, which is well above sea level in any case. What's more, the report does not mention 75 million people in it anywhere.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Our assertion that 75 million refugees is not mentioned in the report is incorrect. The report being referred to is at the Oxfam page at

Our apologies for this error.


Boy on a bike said...

You can always redefine Bangladesh as being in the err, Pacific. That might work.

Minicapt said...

They're probably including the Philippines population c.2000.