When will the ice break?

Climate denialists, alarmists and those who are alert but not alarmed are hereby challenged to put their reputations on the line by predicting the date and time when the wooden platform on the Tanana River in Alaska will break through the ice in 2009.

The Nenana Ice Classic is an Alaskan lottery which has been run each year since 1917. In January the townspeople mount a tripod out on the frozen Tanana River which runs through the town. The tripod is secured firmly to the ice and a rope run from the tripod to a clock mechanism on the shore. When the ice breaks up, usually in late April or early May, the tripod gives way, and trips the clock.

The earliest ever ice break up was recorded at 3.27 PM, 20 April, 1940. The latest ever break-up was recorded at 11.41 AM, 20 May, 1964. Past break-up details here. Historically, the ice has broken most often between about 29 April and 8 May.

Surprisingly, over the years, this event has mirrored global trends with, for example, the second earliest break-up occurring during the famously warm 1998, and the latest year, 1964, remembered worldwide as a cold year.

The ShadowLands invites commenters here to make your best guess. The reader who supplies the closest guess will win our acclaim as well as a mandate for us to believe whatever they say about global warming for the next 12 months.

UPDATE: A commenter at Tim Blair's mentions that "climate denialist" is a nonsensical term - of course, it should be "AGW denialists..."

UPDATE II: Thanks to Blair and Bolt and Daily Bayonet for links.