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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

When will the ice break?

Climate denialists, alarmists and those who are alert but not alarmed are hereby challenged to put their reputations on the line by predicting the date and time when the wooden platform on the Tanana River in Alaska will break through the ice in 2009.

The Nenana Ice Classic is an Alaskan lottery which has been run each year since 1917. In January the townspeople mount a tripod out on the frozen Tanana River which runs through the town. The tripod is secured firmly to the ice and a rope run from the tripod to a clock mechanism on the shore. When the ice breaks up, usually in late April or early May, the tripod gives way, and trips the clock.

The earliest ever ice break up was recorded at 3.27 PM, 20 April, 1940. The latest ever break-up was recorded at 11.41 AM, 20 May, 1964. Past break-up details here. Historically, the ice has broken most often between about 29 April and 8 May.

Surprisingly, over the years, this event has mirrored global trends with, for example, the second earliest break-up occurring during the famously warm 1998, and the latest year, 1964, remembered worldwide as a cold year.

The ShadowLands invites commenters here to make your best guess. The reader who supplies the closest guess will win our acclaim as well as a mandate for us to believe whatever they say about global warming for the next 12 months.

UPDATE: A commenter at Tim Blair's mentions that "climate denialist" is a nonsensical term - of course, it should be "AGW denialists..."

UPDATE II: Thanks to Blair and Bolt and Daily Bayonet for links.

32 comments:

Margo's Maid said...

11.32 AM, 11 May.

Egg said...

3pm, 5 May

Boy on a bike said...

1pm 8 May

Egg said...

I hear that when David Karoly of the IPCC has problems with icehole openings he works it out with pencil and paper ...
(sorry)

Anonymous said...

Being a cold year, I would venture:
1PM 21 May 2009.
Orion

WV: monughe just what I needed

Dave D said...

11:48 AM, May 14th.

jlc said...

G'day MM and greetings from a longtime Blairite.

It will be 4 May at 14:37h

blogstrop said...

9th May

Gnomie said...

2:08pm 15th May

JennyinOz said...

16th May 2009 1.01pm

GAIA said...

10 May 2009

Anonymous said...

When Irfan Yusuf gets near the ice...

Boy on a bike said...

Oh oh, Boltswarm on the way.

MarkL said...

11 May 1000

MarkL
Canberra

Egg said...

"Oh oh, Boltswarm on the way."

And TimB's, too.

MM's meter maid will be working overtime ...

Strange Days Indeed said...

May 4th, 3:33pm

Irobot said...

Star Wars Day 2009 15:57

Anonymous said...

21 May, 11.59am. Melt Baby Melt!!

daddy dave said...

1.59pm, May 6.
Why? I don't know. It seemed like as good a time as any.

Craig Mc said...

5th May

Daryl said...

15 May 1:15

EnigmatiCore said...

May 10, 2:39 PM

RebeccaH said...

April 30, 11:15am, just because it seems like Alaska gets warmer when the rest of the country is freezing.

Reese said...

It is snowing here in the medium mountains just east of Albuquerque, NM, USA. It's been a cold winter. The ice will break near record late: May 18 14:00.

Freddie Stoller said...

May 11th 12:39 hrs. Regards Fred

Anonymous said...

It depends. Are the frozen corpses of the three British AGW ice drillers from the Catlin Arctic Survey weighing it down?
/andycanuck

Trev said...

May 05, 2009. 1321 hrs.

jaycurrie said...

19 May 2:30PM (My Birthday)

upinak said...

:) nice post on nenena.

I put over 20 entries in. LOL I am not going to give you the range.. but my last dat was May 8th.

This is a normal year... so anywhere from April 28th - May 8th.

blogstrop said...

Bravo MM! The comments and guesses are rolling in. Today an unassuming but highly educational blog, tomorrow - the world is your oyster on ice.

Margo's Maid said...

Pleased to have a good range of inputs here, 'strop. Guesses at the linking places will also be taken into account.

An early-ish guess might prove to be a good guess, since most here so far are well into May.

Grantavius Kennarius said...

May 3rd, 4pm local time